Friday, 30 June 2017

MCX CPO Closed Higher Tracking Malaysian Palm Oil Prices

MCX CPO closed higher tracking Malaysian palm oil prices. However, higher import of palm oil in the country during the last two months and reduction in base import prices keep the prices lower.

As per SEA latest release, the imports of palm oil have been higher by 12 lt to 72 lt in 2017 compared to last year’s 60 lt during the first 5 months.

As per SEA, palm oil import raised 21.6% y-o-y to 7.99 lt in May on higher shipment of crude palm oil. There are good stocks in the country due to higher imports during last two month.

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Refined Soya Oil July Delivery Futures Continue To Trade Higher

Refined soy oil July delivery futures continue to trade higher this week to close 0.75% higher on Thursday tracking strong US soy oil prices. There is an anticipation of good domestic demand of edible oil during the monsoon season.

Government increases the tariff value for crude soyoil for the second half of Jun by $1 to $812 per tonne.

As per SEA, Import of soy oils during May 2017 is reported at 3.40 lt compared to 1.78 lt in may 2016 – up by 91% however, the import volume is down by about 30% for the period from NovMay to 16.10 lt compared to 24.22 lt last year for same period.

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Mustard July Futures Closed Lower Yesterday On Technical Selling

Mustard July futures closed lower yesterday on technical selling. The trend is looking higher mainly due to lower level buying as spot and futures prices are more than 23% lower.

There is expectation crushing demand from the oil mills for the winter demand but higher stocks in domestic market caps price rise.

Mustard prices have been under pressure due to higher production and increase in imports of Mustard oil during the current oil year started Nov 2016.

As per SEA recent data, mustard oil imports for period Nov-May increase 5% to 1.18 lt in 2016/17 from 1.72 lt in the previous year. Moreover, imports increase by 55.7% in May compared to last year imports.

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Gold Prices Moved Lower And Closed Mid Level Inside Long Red

Gold prices moved lower and closed mid-level inside long red daily candle which indicates consolidating mode range between $1258-$1236. This is a compressed market within the Diamond triangle pattern and retested support slope line which was former support at.28430

I analysed that the Gold four-hour chart upper diamond resistance line will react around $1252 and most likely to reach towards $1240. Further I would like to emphasise that if it breaks $1240, then the Next additional supports will be $1233/ $1215.

The reason behind is the meeting of the long slope red slope line and the triangle resistance line as shown in the chart. As a result, the selling pressure is generated and market would travel downward.

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Crude Oil Prices Rallied Higher But Were Unable To Break

Crude Oil prices rallied higher but were unable to break above the resistance floor prices at 45.30 which was a strong hurdle place. This could be analysed as a turning point for further direction.

I believe that there is a high chance to break above the resistance line and then reach towards $46-47.50 in the near term scenario. Usually this struggling can be expected on every occasion the prices try to breakout.

As per my analysis it had already broken out falling wedge resistance line around $ 43.5 which now serves as a strong support.

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Thursday, 29 June 2017

Nickel Prices Gained Tracking Firmness In LME Prices

Nickel trading range for the day is 582.2-602.8.

Nickel prices gained tracking firmness in LME prices as support seen due to weakness in dollar.

China's economy continued to improve in the second quarter, with corporate profits rising and hiring up, a private survey showed.

China appointed a new environment minister who has promised a "protracted battle" to clean up the nation's notoriously polluted air, water and soil.

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Natural Gas Gained On Fresh Buying Amid Bullish Weather Forecasts

Natural gas trading range for the day is 195.3-204.1.

Natural gas gained on fresh buying amid bullish weather forecasts that should provide a boost in demand for the fuel.

Prices edged higher as updated weather forecasting models pointed to increased summer demand in the weeks ahead.

Prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on summer heating demand.

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Crude Oil Rose As A Decline In U.S. Production Underpinned

Crude oil trading range for the day is 2813-2945.

Crude oil rose as a decline in U.S. production underpinned the market that has been under pressure from a global supply glut.

However, upside seen limited amid fears that an uptick in output by Nigeria and Libya were undermining OPEC and its allies’ efforts to curb oversupply.

Inventories of U.S. crude unexpectedly rose by roughly 118,000 barrels in the week ended June 23, below expectations of draw of about 2.5m barrels.

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Silver Prices Rose As The Dollar Weakened And Stock Markets

Silver trading range for the day is 38335-39065.

Silver prices rose as the dollar weakened and stock markets fell after a delayed U.S. healthcare bill.

However, prices remained stifled by expectations that Fed will deliver a third rate hike later this year, after hiking rates for the second time earlier in June

Holdings at ishares silver trust dropped by 0.19% i.e.20.59 tonnes to 10551.14 tonnes from 10571.73 tonnes.

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Gold Rose As Dollar Weakened As A Delay To US Healthcare

Gold trading range for the day is 28383-28817.

Gold rose as dollar weakened as a delay to US healthcare legislation that fueled doubts about Trump's ability to pass measures expected to boost economy.

Dollar sank after ECB President appeared to hint that stimulus could be trimmed this year, though sources later said he had been misinterpreted.

China's net gold imports dropped 39.31 percent in May to the lowest in four months, data showed.

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Wednesday, 28 June 2017

Aluminium Gains Supported By Continued Concern

Aluminium trading range for the day is 118.8-122.6.

Aluminium gains supported by continued concern about a crackdown by the Chinese government on illegal and polluting smelters.

Japanese aluminium buyers will pay up to 8 percent less in premiums in the July to September quarter after a fall in spot premiums.

Aluminum ingot stocks in China’s five major markets fell at a faster pace last week, despite the ongoing off-season.

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Natural Gas Rose Extending Gains From The Prior Session

Natural gas trading range for the day is 195.3-200.9.

Natural gas rose extending gains from the prior session amid bullish weather forecasts that should provide a boost in demand for the fuel.

Prices rallied as updated weather forecasting models pointed to increased summer demand in the weeks ahead.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on summer heating demand.

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Crude Oil Rose As Investors Looked Ahead To Weekly Data

Crude oil trading range for the day is 2778-2918.

Crude oil rose as investors looked ahead to weekly data from the U.S. on stockpiles of crude and refined products.

OPEC will not rush into making a further cut in oil output or end some countries' exemptions to output limits, OPEC delegates said.

Iran said OPEC was considering further cuts but should wait until the effect of the current reduced level of production became clear.

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Silver Gained Supported By An Easing Dollar

Silver trading range for the day is 38008-38690.

Silver gained supported by an easing dollar, with investors looking to a speech by Fed’s Yellen for clues on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecasts for the U.S. economy to 2.1 percent for both 2017 and 2018.

The BOE tightened its controls on bank credit to more normal levels o, deciding the risk had passed of a big hit to the economy and to lending after last year's Brexit vote.

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Gold Gained As Bargain Hunting Set In And The Dollar Slid Sharply

Gold trading range for the day is 28383-28733.

Gold gained as bargain hunting set in and the dollar slid sharply after the U.S. Senate postponed a planned healthcare vote.

Fed’s Yellen said she was sticking to the plan to raise interest rates gradually and that inflation has continued to run below the Fed's objectives.

The dollar slid after the ECB's Draghi opened the door to steps that might begin to reduce the central bank's stimulus.

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Tuesday, 27 June 2017

Copper Dropped As The Dollar Firmed, But The Metal Held Near

Copper trading range for the day is 370.3-376.5.

Copper dropped as the dollar firmed, but the metal held near the highs as expectations for upbeat Chinese demand and concern over mine supply lent support.

Copper inventories in LME warehouses now down nearly 100,000 tonnes, or 28 percent, from their early May peak.

Hedge funds and money managers cut their net long position in copper futures and options by 13,552 contracts to 49,285 in the week to June 20, U.S. CFTC data showed.

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Natural Gas Gained As Updated Weather Forecasting Models

Natural gas trading range for the day is 190.5-196.9.

Natural gas gained as updated weather forecasting models pointed to increased summer demand in the weeks ahead.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on summer heating demand.

Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.770 trillion cubic feet, according to EIA, 10.4% lower than levels at this time a year ago.

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Crude Oil Edged Up But Investor Sentiment Remained Largely Negative

Crude Oil trading range for the day is 2735-2845.

Crude oil edged up but investor sentiment remained largely negative amid fears that rising U.S. production would derail OPEC and its allies’ efforts to rein in the glut in supply.

U.S. shale oil output is up around 10 percent since last year, while places like Brazil have also hiked output.

The rise in supplies threatens to scupper efforts by the OPEC and its partners to reduce global oil inventories with production cuts.

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Silver Dropped As Investors Looked Ahead To Comments

Silver trading range for the day is 37761-38631.

Silver dropped as investors looked ahead to comments from key Fed officials and a raft of U.S. economic data in the week ahead.

Prices failed to capitalize on the release of weaker than expected data as new orders for key U.S.-made capital goods unexpectedly fell in May.

Investors are settling into a cautious mode while they await the U.S. data, including June consumer confidence, pending home sales, and revised first-quarter GDP.

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Gold Settled Down Amid A Stronger Dollar And Rise In Shares

Gold trading range for the day is 28285-28639.

Gold settled down amid a stronger dollar and rise in shares, ahead of a flurry of U.S. data due this week.

Traders will also keep an eye out on a final reading of U.S. first-quarter economic growth due on Thursday for further evidence on the health of economy.

Demand in India improved slightly, with dealers charging a premium of up to $1 an ounce over official domestic prices this week, against a discount of $3 in previous week.

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Friday, 23 June 2017

Nickel Gains Bolstered By A Weaker Dollar And Concerns Newly Constructed

Nickel trading range for the day is 561.5-595.9.

Nickel gains bolstered by a weaker dollar and concerns newly constructed nickel smelters in Indonesia have stopped operations

Global nickel market was in a shortage of 35,300 tonnes during the first four months of 2017, according to the WBMS.

By the end of April, LME nickel inventories were up by 7,100 tonnes from the level seen in late 2016.

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Natural Gas Gains As The Storage Data Helped Boost Confidence

Natural gas trading range for the day is 180.7-194.7.

Natural gas gains as the storage data helped boost confidence that storage builds would be limited during the summer period.

In the near term, there were still expectations of slightly higher than normal gas demand due to the influence of hot weather conditions in the South and South West.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. rose by 61 billion cubic feet in the week ended June 16.

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Crude Oil Gains Paring Some Of The Losses Sustained

Crude oil trading range for the day is 2701-2851.

Crude oil gains paring some of the losses sustained in recent sessions but sentiment remained bearish as investors continue to fret about rising global stockpiles.

The move comes a day after EIA said that crude stockpiles fell by roughly 2.45m barrels in the week ended June 16, above expectations of draw of about 2.1m barrels.

According to EIA, domestic output climbed by 20,000 barrels to 9.35 million barrels a day last week, almost 8% higher than the same period last year.

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Silver Rose Benefiting From Risk Aversion As Weaker Oil Prices

Silver trading range for the day is 37851-38717.

Silver rose benefiting from risk aversion as weaker oil prices dented stocks while the dollar retreated.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 for the week, the Labor Department said.

Holdings at ishares silver trust gained by 0.64% i.e.67.66 tonnes to 10571.73 tonnes from 10504.07 tonnes.

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Gold Pushed Higher On Short Covering After Seen Pressure

Gold trading range for the day is 28537-28795.

Gold pushed higher on short covering after seen pressure as recent selling pressure tied to bets on another U.S. interest rate hike this year faded.

The move higher in gold prices comes in the wake of a recent shift in sentiment towards safe havens, after oil prices fell to multi-month lows this week.

First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits saw a modest increase in the week ended June 17th, according to Labor Department.

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Thursday, 22 June 2017

Zinc Prices Gained On Longstanding Concerns Over Potential Supply

Zinc trading range for the day is 162.5-175.1.

Zinc prices gained on longstanding concerns over potential supply constraints.

Spot premiums shrank in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong markets narrowing 20-50 yuan per tonne and 100 yuan per, respectively, in Shanghai and Guangdong.

Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong decreased 7,800 to 120,000 tonnes last week.

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Natural Gas Prices Tried To Recovered From The Day's Low

Natural gas trading range for the day is 183.4-192.

Natural gas prices tried to recovered from the day's low as weather forecasting models turned warmer, which should boost demand in the weeks ahead

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on summer heating demand.

Weather conditions remained very hot across much of the South and Southwest which continued to fuel demand for natural gas.

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Crude Oil Dropped As Investors Discounted Evidence

Crude oil trading range for the day is 2646-2914.

Crude oil dropped as investors discounted evidence of strong compliance by OPEC and non-OPEC producers with a deal to cut global output.

Crude inventories fell 2.5 million barrels, surpassing expectations for a decrease of 2.1 million barrels, as imports rose marginally by 56,000 bpd, the U.S. EIA said.

Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude stockpiles last week had dropped more than forecast.

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Silver Prices Ended With Losses As Investors Worried

Silver trading range for the day is 37590-38420.

Silver prices ended with losses as investors worried about future Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Market expectations for another Fed rate hike later this year have improved in wake of hawkish comments made by influential New York Fed Chief William Dudley.

The Fed also provided greater detail about how it plans to reduce its massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

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Gold Prices Rebounded As An Oil Price Slump Pushed Down

Gold trading range for the day is 28367-28739.

Gold prices rebounded as an oil price slump pushed down stock markets and a weaker U.S. dollar made bullion cheaper.

Investors evaluated the impact of hawkish Federal Reserve policy on the economy even as inflation measures are deteriorating.

U.S. home resales unexpectedly rose in May to the third highest monthly level in a decade.

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Wednesday, 21 June 2017

Copper Dropped Amid Stronger Dollar Capped Gains

Copper trading range for the day is 360.6-371.4.

Copper dropped amid stronger dollar capped gains after comments by Fed official that boosted confidence in another U.S. interest rate hike this year.

Fed official said U.S. inflation should rise alongside wages, reinforcing expectations for the Fed to keep raising interest rates.

China imported 41,400 tonnes of copper concentrates via Port of Ganqimaodu in May 2017, down 53.22 YoY, and 333,300 tonnes in January-May.

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Natural Gas Little Changed In Yesterday’s Session After Suffering

Natural gas trading range for the day is 185.2-189.8.

Natural gas little changed in yesterday’s session after suffering its biggest daily loss since January as updated weather forecasting.

The weather model are showing cooler weather is expected to invade the Midwest and Northeast over the next two week.

A weather update from the US, indicating that the early summer in some regions could be cooler, has triggered this sharp fall in the gas price.

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Crude Oil Prices Fell After News Of Increases In Supply

Crude oil trading range for the day is 2731-2933.

Crude oil prices fell after news of increases in supply by several key producers

U.S. crude oil inventories fell 2.720 million barrels, the API said, more than expected compared to an expected drop of 2.106 million barrels seen.

U.S. drillers last week added rigs for the 22nd week in a row, according to data implying that further gains in domestic production are ahead.

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Silver Dropped As Hawkish Remarks Made By An Influential Federal

Silver trading range for the day is 37697-38533.

Silver dropped as hawkish remarks made by an influential Federal Reserve official reinforced expectations for the Fed to keep raising interest rates.

New York Fed Chief William Dudley gave an upbeat assessment of the economy and warned against the central bank taking a pause in the tightening cycle.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans however said the Fed should move slowly to raise rates and trim its portfolio due to soft inflation.

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Gold Traded In The Range With Fed Views On Rate Hikes

Gold trading range for the day is 28425-28649.

Gold traded in the range with Fed views on rate hikes for the rest of the year pointing to more, though the inflation outlook has not met expectations.

Support can be seen as global political uncertainties, and risk aversion due to Brexit, concerns over Trump's ability to carry out financial reforms.

British and EU Brexit negotiators agreed how to organize talks on Britain's divorce at a first meeting in Brussels where both sides stressed.

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Tuesday, 20 June 2017

Natural Gas Prices Dropped As Updated Weather Forecasting Models

Natural gas trading range for the day is 180.4-199.

Natural gas prices dropped as updated weather forecasting models pointed to weak demand in the weeks ahead.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on summer heating demand.

Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.709 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. EIA, 10.6% lower than levels at this time a year ago.

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Crude Oil Dropped Weighed Down By A Continuing Expansion In U.S.

Crude oil trading range for the day is 2857-2953.

Crude oil dropped weighed down by a continuing expansion in U.S. drilling that has helped to maintain high global supplies.

Traders said the main factor driving prices lower was a steady rise in U.S. production undermining the OPEC-led effort.

Japan's customs-cleared crude oil imports fell 13.5 percent in May from the same month a year earlier, to 2.83 million bpd, the Ministry of Finance said.

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Silver Prices Fell As Investors Looked Ahead To A Busy Week

Silver trading range for the day is 37940-38554.

Silver prices fell as investors looked ahead to a busy week of Federal Reserve speakers for more clues on future monetary policy moves.

Last week, the Fed raised interest rates as widely expected and maintained plans to go ahead with another rate hike by year-end.

Despite Fed's meet, market players remained doubtful over the central bank's ability to raise rates as much as it would like before the end of the year.

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Gold Dropped As The Dollar Rose After Hawkish Comments

Gold trading range for the day is 28449-28697.

Gold dropped as the dollar rose after hawkish comments from a top Fed official

New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley reinforced expectations that the U.S. central bank will continue on its path of tightening monetary policy.

U.S. homebuilding fell for a third straight month in May to the lowest level in eight months as construction activity declined broadly.

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Monday, 19 June 2017

Copper Prices Ended With Losses As Markets Priced

Copper trading range for the day is 362.2-369.6.

Copper prices ended with losses as markets priced in a higher U.S. interest rate environment that would support the dollar.

China's production of copper rose 6.8 percent to 727,000 tonnes in May, according to the National Statistics Bureau.

Copper imports grew sharply in May along with concentrated arrivals of shipments, but it is now the final stage of peak-demand season.

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Natural Gas Prices Dropped As Forecasts For Below Normal Temperatures

Natural gas trading range for the day is 193.4-200.4.

Natural gas prices dropped as forecasts for below-normal temperatures across most parts of the U.S. over the next two weeks weighed.

Stockpiles fell week over week to 10.6% below last year’s level, but they remain 9.2% above the five-year average.

Data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose less than anticipated last week.

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Crude Oil Settled Flat As Investors Continued To Doubt Whether OPEC

Crude oil trading range for the day is 2855-2911.

Crude oil settled flat as investors continued to doubt whether OPEC and its allies’ global pact to curb production would stem the glut in supply amid rising U.S. output.

Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported that the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs in operation rose by 6 to 747 in the week to June 16.

OPEC said that output from the group rose by 336,000 bpd in May to 32.14m bpd while the IEA said it expects production to grow by 700,000 bpd this year.

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Silver Prices Dropped As Safe Haven Demand Remained Subdued

Silver trading range for the day is 38180-38980.

Silver prices dropped as safe haven demand remained subdued, despite a pair of disappointing U.S. economic reports raising concerns about economy.

Fed’s Yellen and her colleagues laid out a plan to shrink the central bank’s massive $4.5 trillion balance sheet, one of its economy-spurring tools, starting this year.

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to shrinking labor market.

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Gold Prices Dropped And Ended The Week With Weakness

Gold trading range for the day is 28597-28845.

Gold prices dropped and ended the week with weakness in the wake of signals from the Federal Reserve for another increase to interest rates this year.

Downbeat U.S. data, with construction for new houses down in May and a June drop in consumer sentiment, underpinned prices as well.

Asia gold demand ticked up as global prices came off seven-month highs, while Indian buyers stayed on the sidelines waiting for further price drops.

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Friday, 16 June 2017

Copper Recovered From The Day's Low On Short Covering

Copper trading range for the day is 363.1-369.3.

Copper recovered from the day's low on short covering as trader book there short after prices fell after the Federal Reserve lifted U.S. interest rates

China's central bank left interest rates for open market operations unchanged, shrugging off an overnight increase in the U.S. Federal Reserve's key policy rate.

Copper inventories in London Metal Exchange warehouses fell another 4,125 tonnes, data showed, taking them to their lowest in more than six weeks.

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Natural Gas Prices Gained On Smaller Than Expected Climb

Natural gas trading range for the day is 186-203.8.

Natural gas prices gained on smaller-than-expected climb in U.S. supplies.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 78 billion cubic feet for the week.

That compared with a gain of 106 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, an increase of 69 billion a year earlier.

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Crude Oil Prices Still Continued To Sustained Below $45 Mark

Crude oil trading range for the day is 2840-2912.

Crude oil prices still continued to sustained below $45 mark although the pace of the collapse slowed, as traders continued to assess yesterday's Fed announcement.

The International Energy Agency says it expects oil supplies next year to outpace demand despite consumption hitting 100mbpd for the first time.

OPEC and its allies have promised to restrict output until at least the end of the first quarter of next year to try to drain surplus supply.

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Silver Dropped Weighed Down By A Stronger Dollar Supported

Silver trading range for the day is 38214-39404.

Silver dropped weighed down by a stronger dollar supported by data showing a strong U.S. jobs market.

The U.S. Department of Labor said initial jobless claims in the week ending June 10 decreased by 8,000 to 237,000 from the previous week’s total of 245,000.

The central bank maintained its outlook of one more rate hike for this year, as it expects that a tightening labor market will lift inflation to the 2% target.

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Gold Prices Dropped Following The Release Of Upbeat U.S. Economic

Gold trading range for the day is 28563-29053.

Gold prices dropped following the release of upbeat U.S. economic data and as investors continued to digest the Federal Reserve's hawkish message.

The Fed raised interest rates for the second time this year at the conclusion of its policy meeting, putting it in a range between 1.0%-1.25%.

The central bank maintained its outlook of three rate hikes total for this year, as it expects that a tightening labor market will lift inflation to the 2% target.

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Thursday, 15 June 2017

Copper Prices Eased With Investors Cautious Ahead Of The Outcome

Copper trading range for the day is 358.6-373.2.

Copper prices eased with investors cautious ahead of the outcome of a two-day meeting where the U.S Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates.

China's National Development and Reform Commission said it approved eight fixed-asset investment projects worth 51.8 billion yuan in May.

A separate report showed that US retail sales fell 0.3% in May from the prior month, below forecasts for a gain of 0.1%.

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